Wednesday, June 07, 2006
I had a quick chat with a good poker playing buddy of mine this evening on the subject of continuation bets. His contention is that the continuation bet is over-used by most players. In fact, it has become an automatic play. If a player bets pre-flop, that player almost automatically bets on the flop, regardless of what comes or what their position is.
I do agree that the move is over used and that the continuation bet is not always the most optimal play in every situation. However, unless you are playing against very astute players, the move simply works most of the time. There are very few players out there who will challenge a continuation bet when they have missed the flop. In effect, that's what a continuation bet is; the initial raiser is simply betting that his/her opponent has missed the flop.
In Super/System, Doyle Brunson very strongly advocates making continuation bets. His reasoning is that if you've shown strength preflop, you should continue to show strength on the flop and since your opponents will miss the flop more often than not, you'll pick up a lot of pots with this technique.
Of course, this trend has given rise to the check-raise play on the flop. Very seldom will an opponent who has hit a flop, miss an opportunity to let you make a continuation bet. In fact, if an opponent leads into the raiser it is usually a sign of weakness. Why bet, when you know you can trap your opponent with a check-raise as s/he is almost guranteed to make a bet on the flop even if s/he missed completely?
So, the question becomes, when should you NOT make a continuation bet? In my opinion here are some scenarios where you should opt for a check instead of a bet on the flop.
I do agree that the move is over used and that the continuation bet is not always the most optimal play in every situation. However, unless you are playing against very astute players, the move simply works most of the time. There are very few players out there who will challenge a continuation bet when they have missed the flop. In effect, that's what a continuation bet is; the initial raiser is simply betting that his/her opponent has missed the flop.
In Super/System, Doyle Brunson very strongly advocates making continuation bets. His reasoning is that if you've shown strength preflop, you should continue to show strength on the flop and since your opponents will miss the flop more often than not, you'll pick up a lot of pots with this technique.
Of course, this trend has given rise to the check-raise play on the flop. Very seldom will an opponent who has hit a flop, miss an opportunity to let you make a continuation bet. In fact, if an opponent leads into the raiser it is usually a sign of weakness. Why bet, when you know you can trap your opponent with a check-raise as s/he is almost guranteed to make a bet on the flop even if s/he missed completely?
So, the question becomes, when should you NOT make a continuation bet? In my opinion here are some scenarios where you should opt for a check instead of a bet on the flop.
- In position, when you flop a strong draw on a dubious board.
Let's say you raised with Kh Jh from the button and the small blind called you. Now the flop comes Ah Qs 9h and your opponent checks. It's highly probable that your opponent is setting you up for a check-raise. By attempting this, he has given you the opportunity to see the turn for free. Take it. If you miss and your opponent checks the turn, you can make a "delayed continuation bet" (made famous by Daniel Negreanu) and take it down as it is unlikely that any kind of hand would check twice with both a straight and a flush draw out there. - Out of position against a large field when you miss.
For example, if you raise from early position with AK off suit and suddenly get 4 callers. You can be sure that most of the time, when you miss the flop, someone else will hit it. At this point the pot is fairly large since there is at least 4x your initial bet in there, so to make any kind of reasonable bet is quite expensive and if your are re-raised or called you know you're in bad shape. So, even though you were the initial raiser it's ok to rap the table when you miss in this spot. This also has the effect of looking like a "slow play" and you may get it checked around only to hit your Ace or King on the turn. - Short-stacked in a tournament on a failed blind steal.
For instance, you're getting low on chips and you attempt to steal the blinds by making a raise from the button with a junk hand. Both blinds call and the flop comes big and scary. When they both check, you should too. You don't have the chips to get into a battle with them and you know they are very likely to be check-raising here.
posted by Bill Sparks at 5:21 PM
Sparks,
This is very true, and from the opposite side of the fence, you can use this to your advantage. Most oppenents know that it is almost always required to make the continuation bet. Take advantage, watch your oppenent make these ridiculous bets, and pop him back... depending on your read you can re raise with rags. However, if the oppenent is astute then you will need to lead the pot.
That being said, I know most of your posts are directed at No Limit. In limit, this is a very different strategy... continuing the path you are on is essential, it maybe a semi bluff or a full bluff, but it may let you see the river for one small bet. The same may hold true in No Limit though... look at your first example... and remember most players try to play to fancy.. if you make a 1/2 pot sized bet into the small blind, and they call... now you will hopefully get a free turn card... rather then show weakness... with the scare cards out there.. you want to bet and get the free turn... now if you miss competely, I see the opportunity to check behind, but with any draw against an average player, you want to continue... but it comes down to, will your opponent believe you... if you miss or pay you if you hit
I find it hard to reply, and hope this makes sense
Sparks,
This is very true, and from the opposite side of the fence, you can use this to your advantage. Most oppenents know that it is almost always required to make the continuation bet. Take advantage, watch your oppenent make these ridiculous bets, and pop him back... depending on your read you can re raise with rags. However, if the oppenent is astute then you will need to lead the pot.
That being said, I know most of your posts are directed at No Limit. In limit, this is a very different strategy... continuing the path you are on is essential, it maybe a semi bluff or a full bluff, but it may let you see the river for one small bet. The same may hold true in No Limit though... look at your first example... and remember most players try to play to fancy.. if you make a 1/2 pot sized bet into the small blind, and they call... now you will hopefully get a free turn card... rather then show weakness... with the scare cards out there.. you want to bet and get the free turn... now if you miss competely, I see the opportunity to check behind, but with any draw against an average player, you want to continue... but it comes down to, will your opponent believe you... if you miss or pay you if you hit
I find it hard to reply, and hope this makes sense
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